Both the Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers are sliding down to some degree. This Big Ten battle promises to be low-scoring, as the college basketball picks reveal.
Two Big Ten teams that have been through some struggles recently will meet on Sunday afternoon when the Michigan State Spartans travel to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers.
Michigan State has lost two of its last three games, and now sits at 13-6 overall (5-3 in conference). Indiana has lost six of its last 11 games, and is 12-6 overall (3-4 in conference).
Which early season contender will turn things around on Sunday? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs Indiana on Sunday, January 22 to find out.
Michigan State vs Indiana best odds
Michigan State vs Indiana picks and predictions
This game will by the way a war of attack and defense. Michigan State ranks 66th in scoring defense, allowing 65.0 points per game. However, they are allowing just 69.7 points per contest themselves, which ranks 225th in the country.
On the other hand, Indiana ranks 39th in scoring with 79.0 points per game. However, they are allowing 67.7 per contest, which ranks 139th. The Hoosiers will continue to be without two seniors in Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson. Both players were starters and combined for 18.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game.
In the four games played without Johnson and Thompson, Indiana went 2-2, averaging 73.0 points and allowing 69.8 points per game. It had a negative impact on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Michigan State will be back with Malik Hall, who has already missed most of the season.
The Spartans are 7-2 with Hall in the lineup, but 6-4 without him. Both tough stretches of the season for Michigan State occurred without this senior leader in the lineup. In nine games with Hall, the Spartans averaged 72.4 points per game and allowed 64.9 points per contest. While their defense has remained strong, the offense has suffered without Hall.
Michigan State likes to slow the game down, and they will try to do that here in Indiana to give themselves a chance to pull off a road win. The Spartans rank 288th in possessions per game, and rarely turn the ball over. They will be able to bleed the clock on offense and find their best shot.
Indiana, on the other hand, will have to work hard to capitalize on its opportunities, as the Spartans are only allowing their opponents to shoot 40.2 percent from the field. This is likely to be a game with few possessions and few scoring opportunities. I like the bottom here regardless of who wins.
My best bet: Under 138.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Michigan State vs Indiana spread analysis
Finding wins on the road in the conference is what can separate the top title contenders from the rest. While the Spartans aren’t a major contender, they’ve made an impact on the road so far. They are 2-1 in such games, with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin.
Despite the recent struggles, the Spartans have won eight of their last 10 games. Indiana could bounce back, win its last two games and cover. However, they have failed to cover in eight of their previous nine contests. Things won’t get any easier on Sunday afternoon.
The Spartans are 7-1 in their last eight games against a team with a straight-up record. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning SU record. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two programs.
Michigan State will control the pace, and it will spell trouble for the Hoosiers. Indiana lost a game in similar style to Rutgers earlier this season in which they scored just 48 points. The Hoosiers might get more than that at home, but I still like the Spartans to not only cover, but win outright on the road.
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Michigan State vs Indiana Over/Under analysis
Indiana has had a lot of high-scoring games this season, but also some very low-scoring games. The Spartans have been much more consistent in their games, with fewer goals conceded. They haven’t scored 150 points in a game since December.
The Under is 5-2 in Spartans last seven games following an ATS win, and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. They thrive by forcing bad shots and limiting teams from taking 3-pointers. Michigan State also has an opposing free throw percentage of 72.1%. It might seem like a no-brainer because you can’t defend free throws, but their style of play overwhelms opponents, which can affect free-throw shooting.
The Hoosiers don’t attempt many threes (17.6 per game), ranking 329th in the country in attempts. Additionally, they are grabbing just 9.5 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 244th in the nation. They will struggle to put up points against this Michigan State defense, and that should lead to Under.
Michigan State vs Indiana betting tips to know
Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. See more college basketball betting tips for Michigan State vs Indiana.
Michigan State vs Indiana game info
|Location:||Simon Skjodt Auditorium, Bloomington, IN|
|a day:||Sunday, January 22, 2023|
|Advice:||12:00 pm ET|